Hello from the trenches of NYC real estate where we have been stalking a developing trend that, according to the independent researchers Urban Digs, shows a loud and clear "BUY" signal. We are sharing important insights from this respected industry publication to keep you, as always, on the inside track.
Conventional analysis concentrates on closed sales with a 3-5 month lag, but the following assessment is based on REAL TIME market data. Buyers' advantages abound NOW for those in the know.
Here are 3 of the indicators analyzed:
1. DECLINING CONTRACT ACTIVITY tends to result in seller exhaustion. It is under these circumstances that we are seeing sellers accept substantially discounted offers - particularly those properties that have already been on the market all summer.
The chart below shows a rolling 30 day picture of contract activity. Historically speaking, we have begun to see an uptick by this week of the year; but as of this moment, we don't even see the bottom. Many of today's buyers are negotiating discounts accordingly. However, the line of this chart could change directions at any time, and buyers will have begun to lose their leverage.
2. "CLIMATE INDEX" Urban Digs has just begun using a new measure of market sentiment by creating a ratio of listings going into contract vs listings coming off the market without selling. Every August, we see lots of properties go off market temporarily for the season - that we expect. But what we are seeing now, between the contract activity chart above and the climate index below, is no longer just a seasonal fluctuation - the market has shifted. The September index was one of the lowest months since the covid lockdown.
3. LISTING SUCCESS CHART
This shifting market has inspired Urban Digs to analyze the data in STILL ANOTHER way - tracking the percentage of listings, based on the month it listed, that successfully received a signed contract. The graph below shows that since 2021, there has been a progressive downtrend - further confirming the shift from an easy to a challenging market for sellers - particularly in the last 4-5 months.
Listings on the market for 90+ days are now competing with fresh inventory. Don't chase the market downwards with incremental price reductions. Rather, make a proactive reduction to put yourself ahead of the trend, and sell before the post Labor Day listings do. However, these market trends do not apply to all properties. Certain neighborhoods are selling higher than ever (West Village and Brooklyn Heights for example). In most other cases, we may advise sellers who are new to the market to make sure they are priced below recent comparables, as the market in their segment weakens.
This data portends that you may now be able to make aggressive offers on certain properties with a higher likelihood of sellers accepting your bid. We will guide you on a case by case basis, as this does not apply to all properties (some are still getting multiple bids). Never buy something JUST to get "a deal"! The steep discounts that we have recently negotiated are not yet known to everyone - including other sellers. So it can take time for them to adjust. Whatever you buy, you will likely look back on this time as a moment in history where some of the most eye-popping deals were scooped up.
Call Carlin today to schedule a private showingContact